The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (CILT) Nigeria has predicted greater difficulty in the country in the third and fourth quarters of this year.
The National Executive Director of CILT Nigeria, Mr. Paul Ndibe who made the prediction in an interview with our correspondent in Lagos recalled that the first quarter of 2018 was very tough for Nigerians adding that things however started to stabilize in the second quarter of the year as according to him, that was when the citizens noted that the country had managed to come out of recession.
Ndibe argued that although one can see some level of confidence as well as some level of stability in the economy, it had not translated in the cost of commodities in the market as prices were still high.
“So, we are waiting for that relief in the economy to be translated in terms of Naira and Kobo or purchasing power of some of these products. But having said that, we have exited the first half of the year and we are now in the second half of the year, people are looking at when we would expect greater importation of goods into the country because of the festive period that we are entering into and that is the most challenging part of the year.
“The budget has not been released until just lately, so, the absence of the budget has reduced level of activities in the economy. Now that the budget has been passed, if they start releasing funds, it will trigger higher consumption rate, higher economic activities in the economy and when this is married with the season we are entering, we will see greater level of activities. However, this level of activities will depend on how stable the transport and logistics sectors have been over the period.
“There has not been any major policy in terms of expanding both the content and availability from the supply end of the logistics and transport. So, we are going to experience greater difficulty in the third and fourth quarters of the year. But so far, like I said earlier, the non-release of the budget has affected growth in the sector and of course, even though we have exited recession, it has not translated into the purchasing power capability of Nigerians. So these challenges are there and because of that, there has not been any major improvement or investment in the logistics and transport sectors”, he said.
Asked whether heightened political activities in the second half of 2018 would affect the economic activities in the country, he replied, “Except there is a policy in place to energize development of growth in the sector, if there is an existing policy and implementation is on, whether there is electioneering campaign or not, but the policy is being implemented, yes, it can stimulate the economy.
“But as we speak, I am not aware that there has been any major shift in terms of the policy formulation of the government to either energize the logistics or transport sector. The CILT bill has not been passed into law, the National Transport Commission, the full implementation is being awaited, the new railway bill is still there, and the General Electric has not taken over the Railway Corporation. So, they are still the way they have been since last year. There has not been any major improvement in terms of ship owners acquiring new ships and all that.
“Nigeria has not been able to float its own national carrier and if you hear the figures coming from the aviation industry, you will just see that Nigeria has been sleeping when the leading airline in Nigeria, the Ethiopian Airways are making millions, moving well of 7,000, 000 passengers from our shores and connecting increasingly more people, Nigeria is nowhere to found in the air. The middle class, that is where you have higher number of people travelling because it is this people that grow the economy, that is where you have the startups and Nigerian is contributing very high number in terms of people travelling by air and you are not moving your people, the income they generate is going to other countries.
“So, in the road, we are not there, in the rail sector, we are not there, in the maritime, of course, you are familiar with the situation there. Look at the condition of our roads, we still cannot go to Apapa and that is affecting the growth in Nigeria.
“Even the inland container depots, none is functional. We are thinking of injecting N250 billion into developing Nigerian Special Economic Zones and then the Continental Free Trade Zone for Africa, we are saying no to it. So, the transportation sector is not yet stable and for that reason, the growth in the sector cannot actually hold”.
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